000			01681nam a22001337a 4500
100			_aRay, D.
245			_aAssessing potential distribution of Hevea brasiliensis in different representative concentration pathway scenarios under changing climate in India using ecological niche modelling
260			_bRubber Science, 36(2): 2023. 136-146.
520			_aPara rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), naturally growing in the Amazon forests of South America, was widely distributed to South East Asian countries, including India and China in the early 19th Century. The potential distribution range of natural rubber (NR) in India was modelled for 2050 and 2070 and 2070 under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) scenarios of changing climate using ecological niche modeling (Maxent) to study the impact of climate change on NR cultivation. The current emissions are tracking close to the RCP 8.5 pathway and if it continues the average increase of temperature in 2081-2100 will be 3.7°C relative to increase during 1986-2005. Under various future emission scenarios, the potential niche for growing NR in India will expand to sub-optimal regions as many colder regions will be warmer and many traditional regions will become less suitable for this species. This study indicate that the most significant bioclimatic variable contributing to future distribution patterns of rubber plantations in India is temperature, particularly the maximum temperature during the warmest month/season, followed by annual precipitation.
650			_aExpansion of cultivation
650			_aIPCC future climate
650			_aSpecies distribution modelling
942			_cJS
999			_c75200 _d75200