TY  - BOOK
AU  - Ray, D.
TI  - Assessing potential distribution of Hevea brasiliensis in different representative concentration pathway scenarios under changing climate in India using ecological niche modelling
PB  - Rubber Science, 36(2): 2023. 136-146.
KW  - Expansion of cultivation
KW  - IPCC future climate
KW  - Species distribution modelling
N2  - Para rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), naturally growing in the Amazon forests of South America, was widely distributed to South East Asian countries, including India and China in the early 19th Century. The potential distribution range of natural rubber (NR) in India was modelled for 2050 and 2070 and 2070 under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) scenarios of changing climate using ecological niche modeling (Maxent) to study the impact of climate change on NR cultivation. The current emissions are tracking close to the RCP 8.5 pathway and if it continues the average  increase of temperature in 2081-2100 will be 3.7°C relative to increase during 1986-2005. Under various future emission scenarios, the potential niche for growing NR in India will expand to sub-optimal regions as many colder regions will be warmer and many traditional regions will become less suitable for this species. This study indicate that the most significant bioclimatic variable contributing to future distribution patterns of rubber plantations in India is temperature, particularly the maximum temperature during the warmest month/season, followed by annual precipitation
ER  -